EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN
Using StatTools and @RISK or Crystal Ball, we collaborated with reservoir simulation experts to develop proxy equations for cumulative oil and gas production, NPV, deliverability, and unproved reserves. Fields included giant gas fields, heavy oil fields, and a new gas discovery. This methodology is promising and should be applicable to a variety of problems where a reservoir simulator model is available. We reviewed in-house models for an engineering and construction company, then recommended improvements based on best practices.
COST AND SCHEDULE MODELS
We built two probabilistic Cost Estimate models, one for a client who rebuilds drilling rigs to customer specifications, and a second from collaboration with an expert in decommissioning offshore facilities. Both models account for unplanned events, including weather. This methodology is a continuation of our several drilling cost models constructed during the past 10 years.
PROBABILISTIC PRODUCTION FORECAST AND CASHFLOW MODELS OF BARNETT AND WOODFORD SHALE PROJECTS
Detailed models have been constructed of both the Barnett Shale and the Woodford Shale. In each case, each of several hundred wells was modeled separately using hyperbolic decline curves. Revenue interest and working interest are specified by well. Multi-rig drilling schedules are constructed. Input distributions include initial gas rate, initial decline rate, hyperbolic exponent, initial liquid yield and pattern of yield change over time, capex and opex, number of wells, and probability of drilling and completion success. Two volumetric models were employed, one based on length of horizontal section and effectiveness of fracture stimulation, the other on gas in place per acre-ft.
Probabilistic outputs include distributions for Gross and Net EUR, Net NPV, annual production, net revenue, capex and opex as well as summary graphs (trend charts) representing probabilistic cashflow and production forecasts.
A consulting firm hired us to build a generic probabilistic field development model that will enable them to run a quick comparison with complex models owned by their clients.
We have been awarded a contract by an NOC for 2011 to build two versions of a project economics model for field development.
EXPERT WITNESS TESTIMONY
One law firm hired us to review a dispute between landowners and an operating company for shallow and deep gas fields in Texas.
A second law firm asked us to provide expert testimony and related services in a patent dispute regarding software for risk analysis and decision making.
MANAGEMENT SEMINAR
Our 1-day Management Seminar has grown in popularity and is now available in durations from 4-7 hours.
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