You can host your own
seminar taught by either Dr. James A. Murtha or Dr. Susan Peterson.
Email jim@jmurtha.com or call (713) 426-2919
Courses include hands on training
using Microsoft Excel,@RISK and the
Decision Tools Suite from Palisade Corporation and Crystal Ball from Oracle.
Good Data, Good Uncertainty Analysis, and Good Questions A Seminar for Managers (1-day)
In the spirit of Peter Drucker, we need to be both efficient ("Do things right") and effective ("Do the right things").
Topics include
Smart Manager questions and questions to avoid
Language of risk analysis
Analysis of data
Comparison of Monte Carlo simulation and decision trees
Pitfalls in Uncertainty Analysis
Effective presentation of results
Role playing and coaching
Experimental design
Case studies to illustrate effective questions
Decisions, Decisions, Decisions (1 or 2 days)
An introductory work session on decision trees, from basic concepts to the value of information, with applications in the petroleum industry. PrecisionTree used in 2-day class. A one-day short course on decision trees Note: This course features software demos but not hands-on computer training, however a two-day version is available for hands-on training with software Who Should Attend?
The course is intended for engineers, geologists and geophysicists, managers, planners, economists, and technical support staff. Participants are expected to have some experience applying models to solve problems (for example, production or economic forecasting, reserve estimation, scheduling) Course Content
Specifics include node and branch types, assigning probability and values, expected value interpretations, solving a tree, dependence and conditional probability, sensitivity analysis, Bayes' Theorem, states of nature and types of forecasts, sensitivity tables, perfect vs imperfect information, examples and problems.
About the Course
This course shows participants how to choose among competing alternatives and to quantify the value of additional information. Typical applications include drill on or set pipe; fish or sidetrack; explore or divest; short or long test; buy information such as 3-D seismic or RFT survey or not. Seminar style presentation without computers. Students are taught to apply classic decision tree methods to solve problems. Participants learn how to do sensitivity analysis and how a decision tree process helps to frame a problem; master the mechanics of decision trees; work several examples; see software demonstrations.
Uncertainty Analysis featuring Monte Carlo Simulation, using either @RISK or Crystal Ball A hands-on course for engineers, geoscientists, economists, and planners
Typical 3-day class topics
Day 1 - Language of statistics and probability; using Excel and @RISK/Crystal Ball to do descriptive statistics; how Monte Carlo simulation works; typical applications; Fitting data with distributions; aggregation and the Central Limit Theorem; common input distributions (normal, lognormal, triangular, binomial): how and when to use them; Building simple models; volumetric reserves application - product models.
Day 2 - Recognizing and incorporating correlation; AFE generation and other cost models; rare events; defending and replacing input distributions; production/economic forecast application, from deterministic to stochastic; introducing P(S) and layers to reserves models
Day 3 – Meaning of P10 forecasts; Comprehensive models: reserves to NPV for prospects; Scheduling and timing, Models from the class; comprehensive class problem
Typical 5-day class topics
Day 1- Monte Carlo simulation vs. decision trees; How Monte Carlo simulation works; Language of statistics and probability; Data analysis;@RISK/Crystal Ball: fitting data, menus, distributions, settings, inputs and outputs (assumptions, forecasts); Building simple models; Volumetric products; Latin Hypercube sampling
Day 2 - Central Limit Theorem; Drilling AFE; Aggregation models; Working with experts; Changing distribution type; Recognizing & incorporating dependency, cross plots, correlation; Effects of correlation
Day 3 – Production forecasts and cashflows, variations of production forecasts; Imposing uncertainty on prices and costs; Modeling unscheduled events; Meaning of P10 forecasts
Day 4 - Scheduling and timing; Linking between model components; Optimization vs. simulation; Layered prospects, including impact of geologic dependency; Decision trees (optional)
Day 5 -Experimental design; Models and data from the class; Converting from Deterministic to Stochastic; Review of report presentations; Comprehensive class problem and presentation.
Investment Project Evaluation using Excel (4 or 5 days)
This
hands-on course examines many of the traditional topics of engineering
economics, but emphasizes Excel and sets the stage for analyzing
uncertainty.
Who Should Attend?
The target audience includes engineers, geologists and geophysicists, and technical support staff who want to sharpen their understanding of cash flows in the oil and gas business. Participants are expected to have some experience using spreadsheets. No previous knowledge of the subject is assumed
Course Content
This hands-on course examines many of the traditional topics of engineering economics, but emphasizes Excel and sets the stage for analyzing uncertainty. Topics include net present value, internal rate of return, payout, profit-to-investment ratio, capital sources and the role of capital in cash flow, production models, prices, operating expense, the time value of money, depreciation, depletion, amortization, taxes, and an introduction to risk and uncertainty.
About the Course
Participants use both the functions and the graphics of Excel to describe the elements of cash flow: production, prices, capital, and operating expenses. They study then modify several worksheets from the instructor, then solve problems by building spreadsheet models from scratch, thus developing modeling skill as well as spreadsheet competence. This course provides an excellent basis for a class in Monte Carlo simulation.
